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Fight for Old DC is a blog covering all sports in and around the District. Main focus will be on the Capitals, Redskins, Nationals, Wizards, United, and Hokies (I know they aren't DC, but it's my alma mater). Enjoy!

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Examining the Salary Cap for 2009-2010: Defensemen and Goalies

With Friday’s announcement that the NHL salary cap has been increased to $56.8M for the 2009-2010 season, I figured it’s a good time to look at the Capitals cap situation and options for free agent signings come Wednesday. Today we’ll look into committed money and options within the organization moving forward. Then we’ll tackle all those other guys out on the market. All values may not be exact but were based on figures from nhlnumbers.com. Keep in mind that a cap number for a player is based upon their average salary, not just their salary for that particular season. For example, Mike Green’s salary last year was $6M but his cap hit was $5.25 because he will earn that average for the duration of his contract.

Defensemen Under Contract for 2009-2010 Season

Player

Position

Age

Cap Number (in Millions)

Green, Mike

D

23

5.250

Poti, Tom

D

32

3.500

Pothier, Brian

D

32

2.500

Erskine, John

D

29

1.250

Alzner, Karl

D

20

1.675

Total

14.175

Returners: The most important returner of this group is Mike Green. Everyone knows how great Green’s regular season was last year, and not one person in the NHL would argue with his $5.25M cap number or his impact, but we all know that he needs to take it up a notch in the playoffs. Beyond Green, the organization faces several decisions about their other defensemen. Brian Pothier and Tom Poti have both dealt with major injury issues over the last year and are on the wrong side of 30. Both provide strong leadership, but neither provided an overwhelming amount of offense last season when called upon. In fairness to Pothier, he couldn’t see straight until December, but no one fully knows what his impact will be over the last year of his deal. John Erskine was just signed within the last year to resume his third-pairing tough guy role. This looked like a pretty terrible idea early in ’09, but after the playoffs, Erskine had Caps fans excited about his physical play. On top of all this, Karl Alzner and John Carlson (not listed above) loom in the minors, waiting to make an impact at the 2009 training camp and earn a roster spot with the big boys. Both are under 21. Their presence throws the futures of last years NHLers into question.

Unsigned: Speaking of said NHL regulars, Shaone Morrisonn, Jeff Schultz, and Milan Jurcina are all awaiting tenders from the Caps in the coming days. If the Caps had all three under contract, that would leave them with EIGHT supposed NHL quality defensemen, with guys like Tyler Sloan and Sean Collins still in the system to fill in on spot duty. Schultz is still only 23, with supposed potential, but Caps fans won’t be as patient with his development next year. The worst thing to happen to Sarge was Mike Green, who was picked two spots after him in the ’04 draft. Sarge hasn’t been nearly as physical as many expected him to be (considering his size), but he’s been relatively steady through the regular season. However, after his ballerina act in game one against the Rangers to give up the GWG (his final act in the ’09 playoffs), many people were left with a sour taste in their mouths. I expect McPhee to hold onto Schultz for at least one more deal, and if he doesn’t put out early, he’ll be dealt. Jurcina, like Erskine, helped his case in the playoffs with strong, physical play. He has a better shot to stay around than Morrisonn, who is likely to be dealt. Lastly, don’t look for Staffan Kronwall to be resigned after an underwhelming NHL stint last season.

Cap Outlook: The Caps only have a shade over $14M committed for next year, and that’s assuming Alzner will find his way into the NHL. I would expect to see the Caps tender offers to all three of the vets, but trade the rights to one (most likely Mo). The other two shouldn’t command any more than about 3 million, plus an entry-level contract for Carlson won’t carry a significant number either. They shouldn’t have any more than about $19M devoted to NHL defensemen next season. Having young, relatively cheap talent pays off in this area, especially considering the needs at forward in free agency. Don’t look for McPhee to make any additions on the blueline.

Goalies Under Contract for 2009-2010 Season

Player

Position

Age

Cap Number (in Millions)

Theodore, Jose

G

32

4.500

Neuvirth, Michael

G

21

0.850

Varlamov, Semyon

G

21

0.822

Total

6.197

Returners: Capitals management has some very interesting decisions to make regarding their goalies heading into the 2009-2010 season. As you can see, Jose Theodore, hereby known as the 8000 lb. gorilla, is on the books for $4.5M next season. Theo expects to compete for the starting job next season, and he will be paid as such, but unless Semyon Varlamov has a terrible camp, he can kiss that dream goodbye. The other interesting piece of the puzzle is Michael Neuvirth, now a Calder Cup winning goalie, often believed to be on an even playing field with Varly prior to April. What does McPhee do with his two young goalies and what can Boudreau do to assuage their egos while keeping Theo from becoming a cancer? This is easily a top 3 storyline heading into training camp. Not to be forgotten, Braden Holtby will likely spend the season in Chocolatetown with a to-be-determined 2nd goalie (Neuvy, Varly or a currently unsigned Machesney)

Unsigned: The only unsigned goalie that really matters here is Brent Johnson. Johnson made significantly less money than Theodore last season and arguably deserved the top spot over #60 before a bad hip injury cost him the second half of his season. Johnson has new roots in the Northern Virginia area, so the Caps do have a shot at resigning him unless he wants to try for another #1 spot with another organization. If he is resigned, it would be a great insurance policy for Varlamov and Neuvirth, who have never started a large portion of an NHL season.

Cap Outlook: Having two young, capable netminders under entry-level contracts SIGNIFICANTLY helps the Caps money situation here. Theodore’s salary will be a subject that will be talked about all season, especially if he doesn’t play #1 minutes. It also keeps trade possibilities to a minimum. The ideal scenario would be to trade Theo and give the youngens an opportunity to start, while resigning Johnny as an insurance policy. In reality, Johnson will probably be allowed to walk, Neuvirth will get one more year in Hershey and Varly will split time with Theo. IF (and it’s a big ‘if’) McPhee is able to trade Theodore, it would be to a team willing to take on salary at the trade deadline next season, knowing that he’ll be a free agent next summer. Unfortunately we may be stuck, but the situation could be far worse (a la post Cristobal Huet’s departure last summer).

Overall Outlook:

Position

Players Signed/Roster Spots

Current Cap Number

Current Cap Percentage

Forwards

9/14

$28.563M

50.29%

Defensemen

5/6

$14.175M

24.96%

Goalies

3/2

$6.197M

10.91%

Totals

17/22

$48.935M

86.16%

After throwing Ben Clymer’s buyout that finishes up this season ($0.367M), the Caps have committed about $49.2M to the 2009-2010 season (including assumed call-ups like Varlamov and Alzner). That leaves them with about $7.5M to work with this offseason. First and foremost, that money needs to be used to resign Schultz, Gordon, Fehr, Bourque, and Jurcina for next season. I would venture to guess that Morrisonn’s $2M cap number is too much for the team to bear, but the others should be able to stick around somewhere in the ball park of about $5M total, leaving between $2-3M for an impact winger and center (ain’t happening that cheap). That would require a move beyond trading Mo or letting him walk, so I wouldn’t be too surprised to see the front office try and deal another big contract. The question is whether it will be from the “tough to move” group (Nylander, Clark, Theodore), the “easy to move but less cap relief” group (Fehr, Fleischmann, Bourque, Jurcina, Schultz), or the probably “tough to lose but older player” group (Poti, Pothier). Look for some smaller moves to try and free up some space, and maybe a stretch move to lose one of the big contacts. If neither of those things happens, the Caps will have to find a way to fill those holes internally, which will be very tough, and the pressure falls on guys like Osala and Laich to produce more and quickly. It could go either way, but if McPhee can dump that salary, they would be in a great position to pick up a valuable skill player to throw at the net.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Examining the Salary Cap for 2009-2010: Forwards

Image Courtesy of PennLive

With Friday’s announcement that the NHL salary cap has been increased to $56.8M for the 2009-2010 season, I figured it’s a good time to look at the Capitals cap situation and options for free agent signings come Wednesday. Today and tomorrow we’ll look into committed money and options within the organization moving forward. Then we’ll tackle all those other guys out on the market. All values may not be exact but were based on figures from nhlnumbers.com. Keep in mind that a cap number for a player is based upon their average salary, not just their salary for that particular season. For example, Mike Green’s salary last year was $6M but his cap hit was $5.25 because he will earn that average for the duration of his contract. Positions are based upon their primary position under Boudreau’s system.

Forwards Under Contract for 2009-2010 Season

Player

Position

Age

Cap Number (in Millions)

Ovechkin, Alex

LW

23

9.538

Nylander, Michael

C

36

4.875

Semin, Alexander

LW

25

4.600

Clark, Chris

RW

33

2.633

Backstrom, Nicklas

C

21

2.400

Laich, Brooks

C (W)

26

2.067

Bradley, Matt

RW

31

1.000

Fleischmann, Tomas

LW

25

0.725

Steckel, David

C

27

0.725

TOTAL

28.563


Returners: Looking at the forwards we have signed through next season, there are only nine returning NHLers from last year’s roster. Notable missing pieces that will not return from the normal 12 starters are Sergei Fedorov (2nd line center) and Viktor Kozlov (1st-ish Line Right Wing). Backstrom is cemented as the team’s long term first line center while Boudreau believes that Brooks Laich could fill the role of a regular second line center if called upon. Bradley and Steckel proved that they could step up into larger 3rd line roles next season during the playoffs, but Fleischmann proved that he can possibly be expendable with his lack of willingness to go to the net when needed. The only sure things out of this group are Ovechkin and Backstrom on Line 1, Semin starting at one of the wings on Line 2 and Steckel at pivot for Line 3. Barring a major comeback from Clarkie next season, the Caps will need to find a serviceable first line right wing, so look for about 7.5M to be tied up in seldom used #17 and #92. Also keep in mind that Semin and Backstrom are RFAs next July, so McPhee is also looking to ink extensions for them in the coming months.

Unsigned: The big names on this list are Donald Brashear, Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, and Chris Bourque. George McPhee seemed to make it very clear that the Caps would not be pursuing a new deal for the leagues most well-known tough guy in Brashear. It looks as though Alex Semin will have to protect his own back next year or count on Matt Bradley’s amazing fighting prowess to scare away all takers. Look for Gordon to be resigned as one of the teams most reliable players at the dot and on the penalty kill. He’ll be slotted in on the 4th Line. The question marks come with what the team feels that they have in Fehr and Bourque. Fehr had a very underwhelming 2008-2009 with a hot streak thrown in the middle. He has shown flashes of physicality and aggressiveness that the team needs from him, but most of the time he seems too content to let other players bear a brunt of the scoring load. Bourque has tons of potential but hasn’t yet translated it to the NHL level, and his name has been included in trade rumors for the last few months or so. Fehr’s value is a little higher considering the organization is much lighter on right wings right now, but I expect for both to be resigned. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bourque thrown in a deal to bring in a veteran pivot or winger with a little more size.

Cap Outlook: Heading into next season, the caps have 9 NHL forwards signed and over 25% of that $28M salary committed to players that have made minimal organizational contributions in the past two years (Nylander and Clark). The two main priorities entering free agency are acquiring a big, skilled winger, and an experienced second line center. McPhee may feel he has an answer for the latter in Brooks Laich, but it seems to be too much of a gamble to leave the former in the hands of either Fehr or Clark. Unfortunately without finding a way to dump Nyles (and his big fat wasted salary), the money will be limited in trying to bring in a free agent. The front office will also be cautious about signing any center beyond two years with Anton Gustafsson and now Marcus Johansson in the prospect pool. The most likely outcome is filling one of these spots with a free agent and another with a trade, probably involving Bourque, an extra defensemen (tune in tomorrow for more on that), or maybe a Fleischmann or Fehr (or a combination of the three). The wild card within the organization could be Oskar Osala (6’4”, 217 lbs.). Osala impressed scouts last year with his physicality, and if he gets a shot with the big club this season (which is very iffy at this point), he could be the physical forward they need to line up opposite the GR8 sooner rather than later.